A paradox has emerged in the Indian economy. The benefits of rapid economic growth have been limited to a few, while a large portion of the country's population still depends on agriculture. This is clearly evident from the survey conducted by NABARD on rural populations in 2021–22. The number of rural families relying on agriculture and related activities for their livelihood has been increasing, now reaching 57%, up from 48% in 2016–17.

NABARD conducted this survey between July 2021 and June 2022, which included not only rural areas but also semi-urban areas with populations of up to 50,000. The survey defined farming families as those with agricultural income exceeding Rs 6,500, a higher threshold compared to Rs 5,000 in the 2016–17 survey.

According to the report, the average monthly income of farming families is higher than both the average monthly income of non-farming families and the overall average monthly income of all families. The average monthly income of all rural families in the country is Rs 12,698, while farming families earn an average of Rs 13,661 and non-farming families earn Rs 11,438 on average. In comparison, the 2016–17 survey showed that the average monthly income of farming families was Rs 8,931, while non-farming families earned Rs 7,269.

For farming families, agriculture is the largest source of income, contributing about one-third (33%) of their total monthly income. This is followed by 23% from government or private services, 16% from wages, and 15% from other enterprises. On the other hand, for non-farming families, the largest portion of income (57%) comes from government or private jobs, while wages contribute 26% to their income.

The report highlights that families owning more than 2 ha of land have an average income that is nearly double that of smaller landholding farmers. In contrast, for families with less than 0.01 ha of land, the bulk of their income comes from employment, labour, or livestock farming. Specifically, 31% of their income comes from government or private jobs, 29% from labour, and 25% from livestock farming. For these small farmers, agriculture contributes only 2% of their total income.

Based on the survey data, it can be concluded that between 2016–17 and 2021–22, the number of families earning income from agriculture has increased significantly. Moreover, the agricultural income of these families has grown compared to income from other sources. While one could argue that the survey was conducted immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns, during a time when other sectors of the economy were recovering, the data from the National Sample Survey Office's Periodic Labour Force (PLFS) survey also points to a rising number of people in India earning their livelihood through agriculture.

According to the PLFS survey, in 1993–94, 64.6% of the country's working population was engaged in agriculture. This proportion declined to 58.5% in 2004–05 and further to 48.9% in 2011–12. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, agricultural dependence had fallen to 42.5% in 2018–19. However, post-pandemic, this trend reversed, rising to 46.5% in 2020–21. The proportion slightly decreased to 45.5% in 2021–22 but rose again to 45.8% in 2022–23. According to the latest figures for 2023–24, 46.1% of people are now employed in agriculture. It is noteworthy that India's economy has grown at an average rate of 8.3% over the past three years.

Looking at the data from rural India, it indicates a similar trend. In 2018–19, 57.8% of the rural working population was employed in agriculture. This proportion increased to 61.5% in 2019–20 and remained at 60.8% in 2020–21. In 2022–23, it slightly decreased to 58.4% but rose again to 59.8% by 2023–24.

Both the NABARD and the PLFS surveys show an increase in the number of people dependent on agriculture for employment. Meanwhile, the proportion of people employed in manufacturing has decreased, falling to 11.4% in 2023–24, down from 12.6% in 2011–12 and 12.1% in 2018–19. In 2022–23, more people found employment in the trade, hotel, and restaurant sectors (12.2%) as well as in construction (12%), surpassing the number employed in manufacturing.

According to the PLFS survey, the highest proportion of people dependent on agriculture is in Chhattisgarh, where 63.8% of the population relies on it. In other states, the dependency ratios are as follows: Madhya Pradesh 61.6%, Uttar Pradesh 55.9%, Bihar 54.2%, Himachal Pradesh 54%, Rajasthan 51.1%, Punjab 27.2%, and Haryana 27.5%. The lowest dependency is in Goa, where only 8.1% of the population relies on agriculture.

In the fiscal year 2022–23, the growth rate of agriculture and related sectors was 4.7%, but it dropped to just 1.4% in 2023–24. In the last two quarters of the previous year, the agricultural growth rate was only 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. This indicates that despite the decline in agricultural growth, people's dependence on agriculture has continued to rise.

This situation arises despite the Indian economy growing from $1.82 trillion in 2011 to $3.55 trillion in 2023. The economic policies being formulated and implemented are aimed at moving people away from agriculture and into other sectors. However, the latest surveys reveal a paradox, showing that dependence on agriculture for employment has increased. This reinforces the fact that agriculture remains a dominant sector in the Indian economy. It also serves as evidence of growing economic inequality between different segments of society in the country.

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